At one of Australia’s biggest art fairs, there was not a whole lot of talk of tough economic times.
From classic figurative canvases, through to gold-embossed pottery statues, pieces ranging in price from a few thousand dollars to upwards of $100,000 were all sold at the Melbourne Art Fair.
Overall, compared to its last event in 2022, sales soared 37 per cent to $14.4 million at this year’s MAF.
“We’ve got a lot of sell-out shows,” its director Maree Di Pasquale told ABC News.
“A lot of red dots on the walls.”
MAF’s strong sales figures come as many people in Australia are more focused on paying their rising mortgages than buying a new canvas for the living room.
As one gallerist put it, it’s unlikely the attendees buying the mostly high-end contemporary artwork at MAF would be particularly phased by rising interest rates right now.
“They’re not so much struggling with a mortgage,” Ursula Sullivan told ABC News.
“They own their own home or they’re in a very fortunate financial position.”
Another gallerist Sotiris Sotiriou said demand was coming in from domestic buyers and overseas collectors.
“We’re seeing a lot of love and a lot of attention from major museums, regional galleries, private institutions,” he said.
Yet outside the casino-like lighting of the Melbourne Convention Centre, it is unclear if the Australian art market is still experiencing boom times.
Small galleries are now reporting tougher trading conditions, and even high-end sellers are reporting “shakiness” in the art market and a return to more conservative buying habits.
What have Australian art sales being doing the last few years?
Art sales unexpectedly boomed in the first years of the pandemic, IBISWorld art market analyst Andrew Ledovskikh said.
“We saw a lot of middle income consumers with built up savings, jump in and buy paintings in the $5,000 to $20,000 range,” he observed.
“A lot of them did their bids online, through online auctions.”
And remember the Beetle piece that sold for $US69m ($106 million) at Christies?
The Blockchain-linked NFT craze — which was accessible for people on mid-range budgets — also helped buoy the art market during the first few years of this decade, Mr Ledovskikh said.
When it came to the wealthy, super low interest rates also encouraged art buying during the pandemic.
Art dealer D’Lan Davidson, who sells First Nations work primarily on the secondary market, recalls having a Swiss client who literally didn’t want his money in the bank.
“When interest rates were negative, he was buying art fastidiously to get his money out of the bank,” Mr Davidson told ABC News.
“Basically, because he had to pay money to keep the money in the bank.”
As inflation started soaring around 2022, the very wealthy also bought artworks as an “inflation hedge” against the decreasing purchasing power of money, Mr Ledovskikh said.
“That incentivises a lot of investors to invest in art rather than government bonds,” he explained.
So what are art sales doing now?
While sales were strong at MAF, some stallholders did report less enthusiasm from buyers.
Kalli Rolfe represents the estate of deceased Australian painter Howard Arkley, whose paintings iconically depicted hyper-colourful suburban landscapes.
Ms Rolfe unveiled what is believed to be Arkley’s last canvas at the festival, which was just taken out of bubble wrap after being kept by his family in storage for 25 years.
“When I saw it, I felt it had to be shown,” Ms Rolfe said.
“I was overwhelmed, very excited and very happy. And it’s in just pristine condition. But it’s also a culmination of his celebration of suburbia.”
A week after MAF, Ms Rolfe is still negotiating to sell the $1.5m piece.
“My market is the higher end of the market and there’s resistance,” Ms Rolfe said at MAF.
“Even high end, well-heeled collectors are pulling back.They’re just saying there’s uncertainty in the market.”
While more upbeat, gallerist Ursula Sullivan agreed a degree of hesitancy has emerged.
“I think people want to put their money into safety. So they want to buy established artists who have a track record,” she said.
When it comes to real sales trends, the most concrete in Australia comes from auction house reports.
This market is largely concerned with the re-sale of pieces on the secondary market, rather than the sale of new works in the primary art market dominated by contemporary galleries.
Auction sales are believed to only represent about 20 per cent of the market, and some in the industry aren’t sure if this sector truly reflects buying trends.
Regardless, data by the Australian Art Sales Digest shows more than $140m in works sold at auction last year, almost as much as in 2022 and one of the strongest overall results since 2017.
Despite the solid numbers, IBISWorld analyst Mr Ledovskikh said last year’s auction data was showing some cracks, as interest rate hikes and inflation were really hitting middle-income households.
“Where auction houses have said they’ve felt a squeeze is at the lower end of the market,” Mr Ledovskikh noted.
The data also shows the most traded artists are still established and largely deceased Australian icons, such as Brett Whiteley or Sidney Nolan.
There is only one woman and one First Nations artist in the top 10 — Emily Kam Kngwarray.
Mr Davidson sells works by this artist, who came from the small central Australian community Utopia and died in 1999 but is now widely recognised and fetching still-rising prices.
“We’ve had great growth in the secondary market, particularly in 2023, which was our strongest year,” Mr Davidson says of sales.
“Buyers have shifted to basically the clients that have money in the bank and are earning interest.
“It’s looking very good and strong for the next year.”
How smaller galleries are feeling it
Even smaller galleries at MAF reported good sales, such as Melbourne-based Futures, which was selling just a handful of hyper-colourful oil paintings by local artist Matilda Davis.
“The beginning of last year was quite difficult,” Futures owner Zara Sigglekow said.
“But everything’s picked up through the end of last year.”
Away from the flutes of champagne at the festival, small galleries that sell artworks at lower price points say they’re still feeling a downturn.
Sales are down at Outre Gallery in Melbourne compared to last year.
“Collectors are definitely still buying but being more cautious than a year ago,” its director Martin McIntosh said.
“From our observation its seems works in the lower to mid range price range have perhaps been more affected than the higher end.”
As another gallery pointed, art sales trends don’t just impact dealers. They also concern the many artists who rely on selling a drawing or sculpture to pay the rent.
“Over the last 12 months the gallery hasn’t experienced a noticeable decline in quantity of sales, however the pricepoint of the works being acquired by our collectors has shifted,” Backwoods gallery owner Tom Groves said.
“Works at medium and lower price points are selling more regularly.
“The gallery has experienced a significant increase in enquiries from artists hoping to exhibit with the gallery, as many artists are experiencing a lot of uncertainty with the current economic climate.”
A finance company that loans money to mid-market professional types who’d like to become art investors agrees the market did decline in 2023.
“Work from the ‘best’ artists will always be an exception to that rule given limited supply,” Art Money’s Paul Becker said.
“I think the market has bottomed out and is set for a slow rise in 2024 with stronger more sustainable growth to follow that.”
