Art World News

Major Auction Houses Experience Significant Sales Decline in 2023

Major Auction Houses Experience Significant Sales Decline in 2023

Major Auction Houses Experience Significant Sales Decline in 2023

In a year shadowed by significant downturns, Phillips, one of the three principal auction houses, has reported a 15 percent drop in auction sales in 2023. The decline in sales, which slumped to $840.7 million from $1 billion the previous year, is reflected in the sale of Phillips’ top five works. These masterpieces, which fetched $173 million in 2022, managed to bring in only $87.6 million in 2023, marking a stark 50 percent decrease.

Art Market in a Slump

The sales slump is not confined to Phillips alone. Christie’s, a fierce competitor, also experienced a 30 percent decline in auction sales, skirting just over $5 billion in 2023, a severe drop from $7.2 billion in the preceding year. This downward trend seems to have impacted the broader art market, with auction sales plummeting $2.3 billion from 2022, according to ArtTactic, a respected art market analysis firm.

Sotheby’s Yet to Reveal Figures

While Phillips and Christie’s have disclosed their financial health, Sotheby’s, another key player in the auction market, has yet to release its sales figures for 2023. The anticipation surrounding these numbers is palpable, given the overall market trends.

Phillips Restructures Amid Downturn

In response to the downturn, Phillips has restructured its operations, consolidating its presence in Los Angeles and concurrently expanding its specialist team in Asia. This strategic shift, it hopes, will help it navigate the choppy market waters. Although Phillips refrained from providing figures for private sales, it is crucial to note that these sales have shown growth in previous years. In 2022, private sales swelled to $250 million, a substantial increase from $208.2 million in 2021.

Despite the turbulence that the market has been facing, the demand for art remains unscathed, especially in the lower price points. The resilience of the art market is a testament to its enduring appeal and the undying human fascination with beauty and expression.

Curious Mutations and Scenarios Occupy Martin Jarrie’s Stylized Acrylic Illustrations

Curious Mutations and Scenarios Occupy Martin Jarrie’s Stylized Acrylic Illustrations

“Bestioles.” All images © Martin Jarrie, shared with permission

Elephants with blue scales and pipe-like trunks, a woman sporting an enormous bouffant filled with birds, and a farmer grasping a tree with roots evocative of veins or intestines are just a few of the otherworldly characters that populate Martin Jarrie’s illustrations.

The French artist is drawn to mutations and curious scenarios, skewing bodily proportions or melding two creatures into strange hybrids. “What interests me most is giving birth to imaginary beings, animals or humans, under my pencil or my brush,” he shares. “I was very marked in my adolescence and youth by the discovery of surrealism, from Giorgio de Chirico to Magritte via Marcel Duchamp.”

Whether working on a commission or a personal project, Jarrie begins with a minimal sketch before choosing a substrate—paper, canvas, or sometimes wooden produce crates—for his acrylic works. “I never paint on a white background, but it is always already smeared with paint (remnants of palette, bottoms of tubes, etc…),” he notes, which is also evident in the streaks and blotches lining the perimeters of his works.

 

a man with a large white cowboy hat, red checkered shirt, and tall gray pants grasps a tree with a green canopy and tangling roots. flowers and plants surround him

“Horticulteur”

But sometimes an initial drawing doesn’t translate to a larger illustration. Jarrie has amassed a collection of sketchbooks from the past three decades, which he references when he needs inspiration. He explains:

There are a lot of failures, unfinished drawings… When I get stuck, I consult them and sometimes find solutions in drawings that I found unsatisfactory but which suddenly open up new avenues for me. And then always in case of blockage… I leaf through the books in my library, art books, exhibition catalogs, books on nature, animals, sky charts, old sea charts, etc…

The resulting works are filled with unexpected oddities and textured details, which the artist describes as direct translations of an idea or thought into “a sensation…The pleasure of drawing is to let yourself be surprised,” he says. “Something escapes.”

Jarrie’s most recent commissions include a seasonal label design for Staple Gin, along with a book project for Vista Alegre. Find much more of his work on Instagram.

 

a portrait of a woman with a large bouffant filled with birds

“Tête +oiseaux”

a drawing of a human hand in navy with thin white lines covering it

“Main”

a silhouette of a face in blue with dark hair on a red backdrop. small gears, bolts, and other tools dot the body

“Les 2 géants”

a woman with curly black hair, a red shirt, and a yellow and black striped skirt is surrounded by dozens of dogs

“Femme aux chiens”

a man with a long red beak nose, blue shirt, and red and black checkered pants sits on an oversized red wood chair while a white bird with long red beak perches in his palm

“Nid”

a green fennel bulb

“Fenouil”

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Pokémon and Japanese Craft Traditions Unite in a Fantastic Exhibition of 70+ Works

Pokémon and Japanese Craft Traditions Unite in a Fantastic Exhibition of 70+ Works

Taiichiro Yoshida, “Jolteon.” All images courtesy of Japan House Los Angeles, shared with permission

Two of Japan’s major cultural contributions converge in POKÉMON X KOGEI | Playful Encounters of Pokémon and Japanese Craft. On view at Japan House Los Angeles, the exhibition showcases more than 70 sculptures and installations that recreate the fantastical animated characters from Squirtle to Pikachu in ceramic, metal, fiber, and more.

Included are works by several artists featured on Colossal, including a menagerie of intricately layered creatures by Taiichiro Yoshida and Keiko Masumoto’s whimsical vessels in which heads and tails emerge from pots and plates. Similar to the natural materials used in Japanese craft like earth, water, and fire, the characters within the popular franchise are categorized by element, drawing another connection between the two.

POKÉMON X KOGEI is organized by the National Crafts Museum in Kanazawa and is on view in Los Angeles through January 7.

 

a ceramic jar with a deer-like character emerging from the sides

Keiko Masumoto, “Vulpix Shigaraki Jar”

three images of small ceramic creatures covered in ornate patterns

Kasumi Ueba, from left, “Grookey with Arabesque Pattern,” “Scorbunny with Flame Pattern,” and “Sobble with Water Pattern”

a small cat like sculpture covered in yellow and beige metal layers

Taiichiro Yoshida, “Eevee”

a closeup image of red metal flames cloaking the face of a cat-like animal with a bright blue eye

Taiichiro Yoshida, detail of “Flareon”

two cat like animal sculptures covered in small metal layers in gold and red

Taiichiro Yoshida, “Flareon” and “Jolteon”

a ceramic sculpture of a blue turtle-squirrel hybrid

Sadamasa Imai, “Squirtle”

a ceramic plate in blue and white with bird characters emerging from the sides

Keiko Masumoto, “Piplup Underglazed Plate”

an installation with a tunnel through dangling yellow tendrils

Reiko Sudo, “Pikachu’s Adventures in a Forest”

yellow tendrils made of pikachu-shaped pieces of fabric

Reiko Sudo, detail of “Pikachu’s Adventures in a Forest”

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Art Market Eye | Will there be more or less work for art lawyers in 2024?

Art Market Eye | Will there be more or less work for art lawyers in 2024?

Pierre Valentin, the highly respected go-to lawyer of the art world, is starting the New Year with a completely new gig: he has set up his own law practice, after a short period with Boies Schiller Flexner in the US. “It was a tough year, as I felt responsible for taking a group of colleagues to BSF, but it has now all worked out well—some have gone solo like me, others have gone back to their former law firms.”

As well as becoming independent, he has also has joined the full service law firm Fieldfisher in London. “They welcomed me with open arms,” Valentin says. So now he is offering two services—one for, say, the individual collector or art dealer, and the other for larger companies or institutions who prefer to work with a structured law firm.

With his enormous experience of the art market to draw on, I ask Valentin if he thinks there will be more, less or about the same amount of work in the coming year, particularly with the disappointing results of 2023?

“Firstly, my take on this is that we are not actually seeing a shrinking market, but rather a shifting market,” he replies. “The market has moved geographically, away from the UK because of Brexit, and towards Europe but mainly towards the US.” And he gives as an example the recent decision by Christie’s to move certain of its sale categories, lock, stock and barrel, to Paris from London, such as Old Master drawings, design and Asian art.

Valentin continues: “For the moment I have not seen an increase in litigation except around issues with new technology—blockchain, AI— there have been a number of cases already. These are areas where the risk is enormous, and losses can be correspondingly huge. And then there is the issue of copyright, where the law is, in my opinion, no longer fit for purpose, since it was generally framed before the internet made images available to all.”

However, he then adds an important caveat: “If we have a global recession, within say 18 months or two years, then I think we will see a clear increase in litigation. I would expect cases being brought connected with the financial side of the market. For example, art investment funds or art loans. Disappointed investors might want to try to recoup their losses through the courts.”

As if on cue, this month the most spectacular feud of the decade is about to reach its (presumably) final conclusion, when a trial begins in New York, the final event of nine years of litigation. Dmitry Rybolovlev—the Russian oligarch—accuses Sotheby’s of helping Yves Bouvier, his former art dealer, to overcharge him by millions of dollars on art, notably Leonardo da Vinci’s Salvator Mundi as well as works by Gustav Klimt, René Magritte and Amedeo Modigliani. Bouvier is not party to the lawsuit, having finally settled with his former client; Sotheby’s strenuously denies the charges.

Both sides have employed armies of lawyers and the documentation must run into tens of thousands of pages. For sure, art law seems a pretty safe gig, however the market behaves.

Erin Milez Meditates on the Joyful Monotony of Parenthood

Erin Milez Meditates on the Joyful Monotony of Parenthood

“Caution in the Wind” (2023), oil, acrylic, and flashe on canvas, 55 x 40 inches. All images courtesy of Monya Rowe Gallery, shared with permission

If we looked closely at the minutia of our lives, would we take comfort in repetition? Artist Erin Milez has built her practice around monotony and domestic habits, and in her most recent solo show, she asks us to find sanctity and humor in the mundane.

Nodding to the relatable cycles of daily life, Round and Around We Go peers over shoulders and out of wardrobes to view the intimate, joyful, and sometimes exhausting experiences of parents and children. In “Caution in the Wind,” a family dressed in wool hats and puffy coats leans down, each with the same curved back, to pick dried dandelions. “The Conductor” similarly zeros in on a quiet scene depicting a mother slicing fruit and slathering peanut butter on bread, illuminated by the glow of a perfectly organized refrigerator.

Milez describes these autobiographical paintings as mandalas, an organized configuration of signs and symbols that, like a routine task, has the power to put one in a trance. Each work begins with a sketch and a small reference piece rendered in watercolor, pastel, and a mix of other mediums. The artist then works on a larger scale, meticulously filling the canvas with domestic details like a speckled bathroom countertop or the texture of a woven rug. “I wanted every inch of these pieces to receive equal attention and care, like how a mandala would, because I needed to give a moment to and reason for everything happening in my house,” she says.

Round and Around We Go is on view through January 6 at Monya Rowe Gallery in New York. Peek into Milez’s process on Instagram.

 

a dense painting of a woman with a long braid down her back. she's facing a countertop, cutting fruit, and spreading peanut butter on bread. a pantry of items is behind her

“The Conductor” (2023), oil, acrylic, and flashe on canvas, 55 x 40 inches

four people each grab at clothes on hangers on a curved wooden dowel. all are are rendered in a gradient from yellow to purple

“Conveyor Belt” (2023), oil, acrylic, and flashe on canvas, 30 x 24 inches

a mother holds a baby and tries to get her to eat while a father sits to the right similarly cradling the two. food and dishware covers the table in front of them

“Phasing” (2023), oil, acrylic, and flashe on canvas, 55 x 40 inches

hands from a mother and father encircle the perimeter of the painting with a young girl in a puffy coat and pink hat at the center. one hand holds a dunkin donuts cup

“We Run On” (2023), oil and acrylic on canvas, 30 x 24 inches

a mother in a green bra and underwear and braid holds up her child by the feet in the bathroom

“Topsy Buttsy” (2023), oil, acrylic, and flashe on canvas, 40 x 30 inches

a young child is in a blue outfit in a crib wile a mother and father are at the top of the painting, the mother is in white and reading a book while the father is hunched over like a caterperllar

“A Very Hungry Caterpillar” (2023), oil, acrylic, and flashe on canvas, 55 x 40 inches

a baby sits on its mothers belly, who is lying on the floor with her hands covering her head. toys cover the floor

“All the Hope and Fire (Prometheus)” (2023), oil and acrylic on canvas, 48 x 36 inches

a painting in shades of blur depicting several sets of hands folding and washing clothes

“Laundry Monster” (2023), oil, acrylic and acrylic ink on canvas, 30 x 24 inches

Do stories and artists like this matter to you? Become a Colossal Member today and support independent arts publishing for as little as $5 per month. The article Erin Milez Meditates on the Joyful Monotony of Parenthood appeared first on Colossal.

Art Market Slump: A Temporary Setback or Prolonged Slump?

Art Market Slump: A Temporary Setback or Prolonged Slump?

Art Market Slump: A Temporary Setback or Prolonged Slump?

The art world is witnessing a significant change in climate as the once booming market shows signs of slowing down. The annual results from Christie’s paint a stark picture with a marked reduction in sales as compared to previous years. However, the resilience of the market in the face of challenges such as wars and inflation is commendable, with no major failures.

Notable Sales and Market Trends

In 2022, the art market soared to unprecedented heights with the sale of Paul Allen’s collection for $1.6 billion, a historic high that bolstered Christie’s results. Nonetheless, 2023 has unfolded differently with a downward trend. Sotheby’s managed to sell Emily Fisher Landau’s collection for $406.4 million, just a tad over the lower estimate, with 25 of the 31 works being guaranteed by a third party. The star of the collection, Pablo Picasso’s 1932 painting ‘Femme à la montre,’ fetched a whopping $139 million, making it the most valuable work of art sold globally at an auction this year.

Emerging Trends and Industry Shifts

Despite the slowdown, the industry has seen some interesting trends. There has been an increased focus on sustainability, with the Gallery Climate Coalition’s membership growing significantly. In addition, contemporary art, along with works by women artists and ethnic minorities, continues to find appreciation and garner higher prices at auctions.

Fair Sector Consolidation and the Waning NFT Hype

The fair sector is experiencing consolidation with major acquisitions such as Frieze’s expansion into Asia, and the purchase of American fairs like The Armory Show and Expo Chicago. On the other hand, the once hyped NFTs in the art world have seen their popularity wane, leaving many to question if the current market downturn is a temporary setback or indicative of a more prolonged slump.

Hong Kong’s Art Market Set for Significant Growth in 2024

Hong Kong’s Art Market Set for Significant Growth in 2024

Hong Kong’s Art Market Set for Significant Growth in 2024

In the throes of economic turbulence, Hong Kong’s art market is set to defy the odds, projecting significant growth in 2024. This contrasts the downturn in the city’s stock and property markets, underscoring the resilience of the art sector. Hong Kong, rich in an East-meets-West cultural heritage, is positioning itself not just as a marketplace, but a community of dedicated and sophisticated collectors.

Leading the Global Art Market

A report by Art Basel and UBS paints an optimistic picture, indicating that Hong Kong’s art and antique exports and imports have seen substantial increases, outperforming other global markets. This, despite broader economic volatility, with global art sales surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The spotlight now shines on Hong Kong, attracting the gaze of deep-pocketed collectors worldwide.

Appreciating Art Beyond Investment

Collectors in Hong Kong exhibit a deep appreciation for art, where motivations extend beyond financial investment. Aesthetic appreciation, intellectual stimulation, and personal connections stand as the prime motivations behind their acquisitions. This appreciation of art, transcending monetary value, adds a nuanced dimension to the city’s art landscape.

Government’s Commitment to Cultural Growth

High-profile art events and the inauguration of major cultural institutions, such as the M+ museum and the Hong Kong Palace Museum, underscore the SAR government’s commitment to promoting the city as an international cultural hub. The momentum in the arts and culture industry is expected to contribute significantly to Hong Kong’s GDP, employment, and global cultural influence. The city’s emergence as a global art powerhouse in 2024 will not only redefine its cultural landscape but also fortify its positioning in the global art market.

Artists praise Hushtola’ Art Market

Artists praise Hushtola’ Art Market

THACKERVILLE, Okla. – A husband and wife jewelry making team from the New Mexico Pueblo of Zuni tribe were awarded “Best of Show” by judges at the Chickasaw Nation’s Hushtola’ Art Market.

More than 100 artists contributed works to the show, conducted at WinStar World Casino and Resort Dec. 9-10.

Raylan and Patty Edaakie took Best of Show and also finished first in the 3-D competition with jewelry pieces reflecting their Southwestern tribal roots.

Many Chickasaw artists finished in top places in categories, including Norman-based artist Billy Hensley for a mixed-media painting and Chickasaw artist Jimmy Dean Horn. Horn, from California, finished in third place in mixed media.

“The selection of artists was great, and there was a wide variety of fantastic artworks available to art patrons,” Mr. Hensley noted. “The show is new and has the potential to be a wonderful holiday shopping experience. I know I purchased a number of wonderful things from other artists from beadwork to pottery as gifts this year.

“The piece I won with is called ‘Finding My Way to the Past,’ mixed media acrylic painting embellished with handstitched glass beadwork and gar scales,” he added.

Hensley has expanded his offerings to include alligator gar scales on paintings, jewelry and leather works.

Both Hensley and Horn have displayed their talents in art galleries located in the United Kingdom and Portugal, respectively.

Chickasaw artist Brian Landreth said he enjoyed Hushtola’ Art Market and praised the show’s management.

“The culture and humanities department did a wonderful job with the market, and the location was beautiful. The department did a great job providing direction to the market in WinStar. I sold a few small works and prints, and got to network with my fellow artists, which is something I always enjoy. WinStar staff were also excellent in providing support to the artists,” Mr. Landreth noted.

The art show also saw Landreth become acquainted with a relative. “A cousin’s wife saw (an article) in the Chickasaw Times and wanted to connect with me about our family and its history. I’ll be sending her some photos I have of our elders for her husband and family to have access to,” he said.

Tribes from vastly different locales graced the show. Two Southwestern tribes – Pueblo of Zuni and San Felipe Pueblo – joined the juried art show, as did Caddo, Navajo and Coushatta Nation of Louisiana tribal artists.

Chickasaw artists were awarded first place in 10 judged categories. They include Jennifer Hicks, pottery; Mary Wilds, handwoven textiles; Melissa Freeman for general textiles and traditional dress and regalia; Glenda Dewbre, miniatures; Michael Cornelius, instruments; Marcella Yepa, traditional pottery; Jim Keel, cultural diversity; Regina Free, drawing and sculpture; and Hensley, mixed media.

Fairs, auction houses and AI: five predictions for the art market in 2024

Fairs, auction houses and AI: five predictions for the art market in 2024

For nearly a decade, I’ve begun each year by making predictions about the art market in January that can be objectively evaluated come December. Although I end up being wrong more often than right, reasoning my way to a set of medium-term conclusions tends to unearth some thought-provoking aspects of important recent trends. Continuing the exercise feels especially fraught after the market correction of 2023, but here we go anyway.

1. Worldwide fine art sales at auction in 2024 will land within 4% of the equivalent total in 2023

Get ready for another year of hand-wringing, as the sharp turnaround the trade has been hoping for since early last year fails to materialise, largely due to unfavourable macroeconomic conditions.

Historically aggressive interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve over a 16-month stretch ending last July have tamped down inflation in the US, from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.1% in November 2023. But even after the three rate reductions the Fed forecast for this year, its prime lending rate would still be 4.6%—steeper than at any point between 2009 and this latest campaign of rises. The UK and European Union’s central banks both kept their high rates steady in December, with the latter refusing to even hint at future cuts. This means borrowing money will stay expensive in these regions in 2024, limiting the capital reserves of the collecting (and speculating) class.

Meanwhile, China’s economy continues to look shaky amid its ongoing crisis in the market for real estate, with no strong reason to believe it will right itself soon. And numerous economists anticipate the UK will grow less than 1% in 2024.

I can’t see global fine art sales under the hammer improving by more than 4% year-on-year without a strong rebound from at least two of the perennial top three national markets (the US, China and the UK). That doesn’t mean sales won’t modestly increase, just that they won’t surge by an attitude-resetting amount.

2. At least one blue-chip artist will split with a gallery over fallout from the Israel-Hamas war

As of mid-December, the most divisive geopolitical conflict in recent memory had already led to several ruptures in the art trade: reports of various collectors threatening to return, auction or even literally burn works by artists in their collections deemed to be stridently pro-Palestine; Lisson Gallery’s indefinite postponement of an Ai Weiwei show scheduled to open last November after a (since-deleted) social media post by the artist implied an anti-Arab bias in US policy and media coverage; and Australia’s Anna Schwartz Gallery dropping the artist Mike Parr over his performance work that reportedly invoked “apartheid” and “ethnic cleansing” in regard to Israel’s political and military strategy in Gaza.

The effects in art’s institutional and publishing realms have included firings, resignations and departures by alleged mutual agreement, exhibition cancellations and removals of works from exhibitions in protest. There are very few higher-stakes fractures left for tensions over the conflict to induce: the dismissal or resignation of a museum director, the severing of a corporate partnership with an art institution and the breakup of a blue-chip artist and one of their dealers. Each of these three is on the table in 2024, but the last one seems the most likely of all to me.

3. Patrick Drahi will sell a minority stake in Sotheby’s to a private investor by 1 October

The concussive impact of higher interest rates on the debt-fuelled corporate empire of the Sotheby’s owner is the most overlooked story in the auction sector, mainly because tracking it requires a working understanding of concepts such as bond maturity rates, term loans and debt restructuring that would scarcely be any less accessible to professionals outside finance if they were explained in the runic language of druids.

But the point is that Drahi has an increasingly urgent need for cash; his companies have to repay about $21.3bn by the end of 2027 and $60bn overall, according to Bloomberg. Drahi has already sold hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of assets to narrow the gap and, as he reportedly told a roomful of potential investors about his portfolio of corporations last September, “Everything is open… it’s just a question of offer and demand”.

That should include syphoning off part of Sotheby’s for the right price. Charles Stewart, Sotheby’s chief executive, denied in December that leadership is pursuing an initial public offering of the company, and Bloomberg reported the same month that Drahi had cut ties with the two investment banks hired to pursue that goal in the US in 2021. There are only two reasons for him to do this: either he has decided to hold onto the company in full, or he has decided to prioritise private investment instead.

Option two makes much more sense, especially in light of a Financial Times report that Drahi has had informal talks about selling a minority stake in the auction house to potential investors that “included European billionaires and the Qatar Investment Authority” during the past two years. It may be true that he views Sotheby’s as a unique asset that he is reluctant to sell, even in part, but that stance also happens to be a textbook negotiating position. My guess is the gravity of Drahi’s financial situation overcomes his sentiment, and a deal in principle gets announced by the fourth quarter of the year.

4. Neither Endeavor/Frieze nor MCH Group/Art Basel will acquire any more regional art fairs

Ever since Frieze announced last July that it would acquire the Armory Show and Expo Chicago, many in the trade have been anticipating a wave of consolidation, with several more regional fairs being absorbed by the two largest organisers as rising expenses, declining sales and an abundance of options compel dealers and collectors alike to become more selective. But given how tough the business is getting for smaller organisers, my question is this: Why would the largest players want to pay to take on their problems?

Remember, MCH Group, Art Basel’s parent company, already rolled up an array of regional fairs in a vastly favourable economic climate—and regretted it quickly. From September 2016 to July 2018, MCH Group acquired majority stakes in the India Art Fair and Masterpiece London, publicised plans to launch Art SG in Singapore (in collaboration with Sandy Angus and Tim Etchells) and became a minority investor in Art Düsseldorf. By November 2018, MCH Group announced it “would not proceed” with Art SG and would divest its shares in the India Art Fair and Art Düsseldorf. Masterpiece London, the last remnant of its regional-fair investment spree, was shuttered for good in early 2023 due to “escalating costs and a decline in the number of international exhibitors”. (MCH Group did invest in Art SG in 2022, but its share is only 15%.)

Frieze’s recent acquisitions aren’t just different from MCH Group’s earlier multi-continental approach; they may be unique. The Armory Show and Expo Chicago are likely the two largest, most consequential regional fairs in the most robust art market on the planet. I’m sure Frieze or Endeavor, its parent company, could buy more regional fairs elsewhere if desired, but being part of a broad category does not make each item in it equal. Wine and sparkling water are two bottled liquids in my home, but just because they’re nice to drink doesn’t mean my laundry detergent and drain cleaner are, too.

Whether out of curiosity, pragmatism or vanity, some artist of note is going to be the first to go into business with the AI companies

Endeavor/Frieze and MCH Group/Art Basel are certainly still hunting growth in 2024. I just think their leaders believe alternatives like digital initiatives, advisory arrangements and novel partnerships (see: Frieze’s No. 9 Cork Street gallery project) are more profitable pursuits than operating even more of the same events in an oversaturated sector.

5. One or more brand-name artists will strike a licensing deal with the maker of an AI-powered image generator

Although there’s still plenty of fear about the consequences of unbridled artificial intelligence (AI) in the realm of image-making, the technology has now attracted so much funding, opened the door to so much creative potential and accumulated so much power that artists in every discipline are largely reconciling themselves to co-existing with it for the rest of their lives. (At least in the US, where the will to use legislation to restrain tech in general and AI specifically lags far behind the EU.)

Whether out of curiosity, pragmatism or vanity (or a combination of all three), some artist of note is going to decide it is better to be the first to go into business with the AI companies rather than fight them, in what is probably a losing battle, to shield their work from unauthorised use as a visual reference point. The same thing has happened with just about every innovative technology since Andy Warhol partnered with Amiga computers in 1982.

Would, say, Marina Abramović or Jeff Koons shy away from cashing a cheque from OpenAI, the developer of DALL-E, when doing so could make them the artistic face of an evolution in digital image-making? I doubt it. But one way or another, we’ll know in 12 months.